A Fan范局观察
A Fan范局观察
What I said may not be accurate, but it definitely works. Pay attention to the big fish and meat every day.
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"Big brother, please tell me where to buy $BTC on the pullback? Can you give me a specific price point?"
May 16: Next week has many market highlights — the Middle East situation may heat up again, bond market "rate hike expectations" are rising, and the last Federal Reserve meeting minutes of the "Powell era" will also be released.
Key points to watch:
* Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the meeting minutes;
* Nvidia (NVDA) will release earnings after the market closes on Wednesday;
* Walmart (WMT) will release earnings before the market opens on Thursday.
The current market theme still revolves around the AI boom and consumer spending. Next week, the two major indicators of technology and consumer sectors will face a critical test.
KelpDAO said that the problematic 1-of-1 configuration was approved by LayerZero; however, LayerZero responded that the configuration was chosen by the project team themselves, and the responsibility lies with KelpDAO.
But I think the real issue this time is no longer about who is passing the blame, but that the trust in the infrastructure layer is starting to break down. Because many projects have been using similar configurations for a long time, this is no longer simply a case of "developers choosing wrongly." When a dangerous configuration becomes the default option in the ecosystem, the platform itself bears responsibility.
I have always believed that the scariest thing in DeFi is not obvious vulnerabilities, but those things that "everyone assumes are safe." Because once the underlying infrastructure has problems, it affects not just one project, but the trust of the entire ecosystem.
After Cerebras, the market has already started trading SpaceX in advance.
A very obvious trend now is:
Large IPOs haven't even gone public yet, but pricing has already begun on-chain.
In the past, most of the IPO benefits went to VCs and Wall Street. But now, more and more capital is starting to speculate on "expectations" in advance on-chain—AI concept coins, Pre-IPO mapped assets, popular concept tokens, all essentially front-running.
I think this might become the norm in the future.
Because what’s truly valuable now isn’t just the company itself, but:
Whoever can capture the sentiment earliest gets liquidity first.
What the market fears most right now is not "whether something will happen in the Middle East," but whether something will suddenly happen over the weekend.
Because geopolitical conflicts are most likely to escalate over the weekend: global markets are closed, liquidity is at its lowest, and if a sudden military action occurs, Monday often opens with a gap.
Currently, the risk in the Strait of Hormuz is heating up. If in the next 24 hours there is Iranian retaliation, increased U.S. involvement, attacks on oil tankers, or further blockade of the strait, then the market next week is very likely to enter a mode of "crude oil surging, gold rising, tech stocks under pressure, and global risk assets plunging."
So many institutions are doing one thing on Friday: deleveraging. Because the scariest black swan is not the loss itself, but the lack of even a chance to stop the loss.
Israel is preparing for war while agreeing to extend the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire for another 45 days. Behind this lies a very clear strategic signal:
First stabilize the northern front, then focus on handling the eastern front.
For Israel, although Hezbollah is dangerous, the real greater pressure still comes from Iran. If the northern front fully erupts, the Israeli military will be dragged into a prolonged two-front war. Therefore, the more realistic choice now is to "freeze" the Lebanon front through a ceasefire.
The U.S. actively pushing for the extension at this time is essentially helping Israel control the pace and avoid a full-scale loss of control in the Middle East.
So this ceasefire extension is more like a strategic maneuver rather than a genuine easing of the situation.
Recently, many people have been discussing the "Tiger Head Bag" carried by Elon Musk's son, which actually comes from a "non-heritage" handmade brand in Guangxi.
It's not the kind of internet-famous brand that suddenly appears and gets hyped through marketing. On the contrary, it has quietly been around for nearly 20 years.
The brand founder, Liu Siwei, is a native girl from Guilin. She graduated from an art academy and learned fabric art and embroidery from her mother, who was a tailor, since childhood. After graduation, she didn't stay in a big city but returned to Guilin, Guangxi, to start local cultural and creative work.
Later, she gradually turned the traditional embroidery and fabric art of Guangxi into products that could truly be seen by more people.
In several counties and villages in Guangxi, they have successively established embroidery workshops and gathered more than 300 embroiderers. Most of them are stay-at-home mothers, middle-aged women, or women who originally had difficulty finding stable jobs.
They can earn money at home through hand embroidery without going out to work.
And it’s not the kind of "machine-like" assembly line products; it’s truly embroidered stitch by stitch. Each bag even bears the handwritten name of the embroiderer.
You suddenly feel that what you bought is not an industrial product but a genuine handcrafted item with warmth.
At first, when I saw the price of over six hundred, I also thought it wasn’t cheap. But after learning the story behind it, I suddenly felt that what’s expensive might not be the bag itself.
It’s the nearly disappearing craftsmanship and the real people behind every stitch.
