朱老师区块链

10 years old, core member of 2 national blockchain key R&D projects, 10 years of 3,000 projects.

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Those who missed out on BTC should take a look at Buffett's two failures. Today, I received a question from a fan who wrote a long message. He mentioned a term called "value speculation" and stated that the first point of his personal view is to cut losses, as one may encounter a Waterloo, which could involve a "black swan" event, such as Buffett's two Waterloo incidents with Berkshire's textile factory and the Kraft Heinz project. I can briefly review these two events. The textile factory business was purchased by Buffett in 1960 because it was cheap and was a typical case of buying undervalued good companies. However, the textile industry was already crushed by low-cost manufacturing in Asia at that time. Even though Buffett kept injecting capital, it continued to incur losses, so Buffett said it was a "bad decision" because the industry was a poor one with no economic moat. Kraft Heinz was a consumer goods company created by Buffett and 3G Capital in 2015. This is an industry with an economic moat and is mature, but Buffett felt it was overpriced. These two instances are among Buffett's more failed investment cases. Personally, I think this is very normal; no one can always make the right investment decisions throughout their life. It's impossible; we all grow from "failure." These two cases taught Buffett not to touch poor industries in the future and to be more cautious about industry moats. Everyone, whether investing or speculating, grows their own "value perspective" from failure. I've been in the game for 8 years, watching Bitcoin rise from a few thousand to 100k. I missed out before, so I cherish Bitcoin even more now. If I had the current "understanding," I would have bet everything back then, even going into debt to buy Bitcoin. Isn't this all experience gained through "lessons"? No one is a prophet, and no one can traverse the past, so when I emphasize holding onto Bitcoin, it's not because of a "value investment perspective" but because previous "lessons" have shaped this perspective! Regarding your point about preserving capital, this is indeed very important. One should always cut losses, but after being in the industry for a long time, one generally knows where Bitcoin is reasonably priced and where it is likely to be "high" and can sell a bit. So after I finish a round of buying and holding, I generally won't incur losses. However, buying during a downturn will definitely involve some losses, so my principle is not to invest all my money but to ensure basic living expenses and then work hard to earn money outside! Because the understanding above tells me that as long as I hold for a long time, I will definitely make a profit, so I remain calm inside! However, if a "black swan" event occurs, such as quantum computers being widely applied and Bitcoin starting to plummet, then cutting losses should be considered; it doesn't mean one has to hold on for dear life! In response to your point about looking at indicators and tools to find key positions for buying and selling, that is essentially doing swing trading, which is entirely based on personal preference. If you enjoy doing it and can make money through constant practice, that's fine. I don't like frequent trading because I believe the probability of making mistakes is very high during the process, and if you make one mistake, the cost may be greater than getting it right ten times! Here, through a mathematical probability formula, let me clarify: assuming your probability of being right once is as high as 80%, with only a 20% chance of being wrong, that is already top-notch. However, after 10 tries, the probability of getting them all right is only 10%. In other words, you have a 90% chance of making a mistake in 10 tries, so minimizing operations is the best way for ordinary people! As for the valuation of a company or project, the high or low valuation can currently only be assessed through comparison. For companies of the same type, there are comparisons. For example, for web3 lending platforms, I would compare AAVE and morpho, looking at their TVL relative to market cap, and buy the one that is higher. Finally, he said to buy low and sell high, and I think that's fine. As long as you make money, you can sell; there's no rule that says you have to hold forever. Everyone has their own style. I don't know if 12.4 is the peak; I just saw that the situation in November was not good and sold part of it in November, not completely. I also don't know if 60k is the bottom; I just bought from 8 to 6 during the downturn. Did I make money this time? I definitely didn't, because if I had sold all at 12.4k, I would have made the most profit. If I bought all at 6, I would have made the most profit. The key is that I don't know when the peak or bottom is. What if it drops to 50k or 40k later, right? So I rarely make trades. Even when I do, I don't operate with 100% of my capital because I'm uncertain; I can only use a portion of my capital for trading. The benefit is lower risk, but the downside is lower returns. Because you can't expect low risk and high returns; the risk-reward ratio and win rate are always two opposing indicators! So, at this point, it actually goes back to the human aspect. People always want to earn more and lose less; greed and fear can never be overcome. Therefore, I choose not to fight against human nature; if I earn less, then I earn less. Don't worry about temporary gains and losses; if you can earn, be grateful! Finally, let me share my recent insights: gains and losses come from the same source, happiness and anger come from the same source, success and failure come from the same source, and gain and loss are of the same origin. When you gain a little, you will lose a little in another area. So just try to do your best, and let your own state of mind become a refined person, achieving unity of knowledge and action. Wishing: everyone can become their best self! $BTC $ETH