Powerpei

Yesterday I renewed a subscription for an overseas data tool I usually use. It was just a bill for a few dozen dollars, but I kept getting a payment failure. In the end, my domestic bank sent me a risk control message and froze my credit card. I called and argued with customer service for almost half an hour. I had to exhaust my words to prove "I am me, I am spending my own money and I haven't been scammed," before they reluctantly unblocked it. After hanging up, I looked at the card on my desk and really felt that this old financial system is completely rotten. You think the money is yours, but in their eyes, you are just a tenant with the right to use it. > This is also why I kept staring at the announcement of Bybit's 10 million WLFI reward today, reading it several times. ———— Many people look at such activities, their eyes glued to daily check-ins and playing TradeGPT to collect fragments for a lottery. To be honest, I can't even be bothered to click on those time-consuming data games that act as free labor. ➤ What really caught my attention was the most inconspicuous line in the announcement: permanent zero fees between USDC and USD1, and full access to mainstream coin pairs. Think about it, what keeps an exchange alive? It's the transaction fees. Bybit is now willing to cut this fat piece off and even subsidize a few million dollars worth of tokens for the event, what are they after? If you look at the on-chain data, you'll understand. ➤ USD1 has recently quietly increased its issuance by over 20 million coins. Moreover, institutions like MovaLab have directly become the first batch of super nodes. They are starting to slice into the cake of foreign exchange remittances and AI payments. This is not just a simple spring promotion for the platform; it’s political capital behind it using real money for subsidies. They are forcibly laying down a parallel dollar track in the market. ———— In this circle, don’t go against the trend. Now major exchanges are competing for the pricing power and liquidity of this new track. For us retail investors, arguing about whether this thing is truly decentralized is meaningless. My operations are extremely boring, but also the most stable. ➤ Move the idle USDC sitting on the chain over; after all, the exchange is zero-cost, and I can easily hit a $500 spot trading volume threshold. Since the giants are willing to spend money to seize the ecological base, then this certain liquidity subsidy is something to take advantage of. As for the 1 million prize pool's Mantle chain interaction, if you have the energy, just click a couple of times to grab it. In this market full of landmines, earning subsidies that you can understand is much more reassuring than blindly guessing the market. Alright, enough said. I still need to renew that damn tool; after the bank's hassle, I even forgot my login password.

NVDA options trading volume surged 268 times—Is it institutions dumping or retail investors celebrating? Today there’s a data point in the US stock options market that’s quite suitable for discussion. ➤ NVDA May 15 expiration Put option with a strike price of $232.5 saw a trading volume of 108,700 contracts But the open interest is only 405 contracts VOL/OI exceeds 268 times Even more astonishing, this Put option dropped over 86% on the same day Many people see this data and their first reaction is: Is big money bearish on Nvidia? Not necessarily This is exactly where options are most easily misunderstood. ---- ➢ Let’s start with the Put A Put can be simply understood as: Betting on a price drop, or buying insurance for a position. For example, if you buy an NVDA Put, theoretically you hope NVDA falls But the biggest difference between options and spot is: > Spot only requires the direction to be right; time doesn’t necessarily hurt you immediately. > Options are different. > Options have an expiration date You not only have to be right about the direction, but also within a specified time. ---- Why did this NVDA Put have such a large trading volume but still drop 86%? ➤ The core reason is: The price didn’t move according to its rhythm. May 15 expiration means it’s very close to expiry Such short-term options experience rapid time decay. You might think NVDA has risen too much or that it should pull back. But if it doesn’t quickly drop before expiration, the Put’s time value will be eaten away. The harshest part of options is: You might be right about the direction, but wrong about the timing, and still lose money. ---- Now look at volume and open interest. Volume: how many contracts traded today Open Interest: how many contracts remain open in the market This NVDA Put: → Volume about 108,700 contracts → Open Interest about 405 contracts This indicates very active trading on the day, far exceeding existing positions. But this does not equal "long-term big money heavily bearish." It could just be: > Intraday short-term trades > Hedging > Market maker adjustments > Near-expiration speculation > Quick in-and-out speculative orders So seeing large volume doesn’t mean a big bear is coming. ---- Why is VOL/OI important? Simply put: ➤ Volume / Open Interest The higher this number, the more sudden the trading surge on that day. NVDA’s Put VOL/OI exceeds 268 times This is indeed an anomaly But anomalies only represent one thing: ➤ At this strike, many funds are expressing short-term views. It doesn’t mean the bearish bet will succeed Nor does it mean it’s smart money And it doesn’t guarantee profits ---- ➢ QQQ shows a similar situation A May 15 expiration Put with a strike price of $719 had a volume of about 25,400 contracts Open interest only 162 contracts VOL/OI exceeds 156 times But this Put also dropped over 63% on the day This shows short-term funds are not only watching NVDA but also betting on Nasdaq volatility with QQQ But the result is the same: High volume does not equal a confirmed direction In the options market, what you often see is sentiment, not answers. ---- Now let’s look at IV IV is implied volatility You can understand it as: The market’s price for future volatility. Higher IV means more expensive options Lower IV means cheaper options Buying options is not just betting on direction You’re also buying volatility If you buy a Put and the price doesn’t drop significantly, and IV is suppressed, that’s a double loss: > Direction didn’t materialize > Volatility didn’t help you Many people lose money on options not because they were completely wrong But because only one of direction, timing, or volatility was correct ---- So short-term options, especially 0DTE / near-expiration options, are like adding a countdown to market views. You can’t just say: NVDA is too high Nasdaq should pull back You also have to answer: → When will it drop? → How far will it drop? → How fast will it drop? → Will IV expand? → Is there any event catalyst? → Is liquidity sufficient? Missing any condition can completely distort the profit curve This is why short-term options look exciting but are very unfriendly to ordinary investors. ---- When I see options anomalies now, I don’t jump to conclusions like: Someone is massively bearish Institutions are dumping Smart money is entering I prefer to treat it as a sentiment thermometer. A sudden surge in Put volume means someone is defending at a high level or betting on a pullback. But if the Put price quickly goes to zero, it means the drop didn’t happen. Bearish defense failed. Conversely, if Put volume surges and the index really breaks key levels, short-term options may amplify volatility. ---- So the most important thing to watch in today’s NVDA / QQQ Put anomalies is not "who is bearish." But these variables: > Direction > Timing > Volatility > Volume > Open Interest > Liquidity Spot trading is often like a multiple-choice question Options are more like a multivariable equation You can’t just be right about up or down You have to be right about: ➤ Direction, timing, volatility magnitude, IV changes, expiration structure ---- ➤ My own understanding is: In the high phase of US stocks, the options market increasingly acts as a sentiment amplifier Especially for highly watched names like NVDA, QQQ, SPY When everyone is looking for a pullback at highs, Put volume suddenly surges. But if prices don’t fall quickly, these Puts decay rapidly, creating new squeezes. So don’t simply see options anomalies as answers. They are more like questions: At this level, is the market defending or betting on a failed pullback? That’s what’s worth tracking. Note: The above content is purely personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!! #Options #NVDA #QQQ #USStocks #Options

Recently, when I look at stablecoins, I pay less and less attention to who tells the biggest story Because this sector is no longer short of stories. >The real scarcity is: Whether it has been integrated into real trading paths So regarding the BTCUSD1 perpetual contract, I won’t just look at the 100x leverage. What’s more worth watching is that USD1 has entered: ➢ Quote currency ➢ Margin ➢ Collateral ➢ Portfolio Margin This is not just about launching a trading pair But it’s starting to enter the trading settlement path. >Solana is also making moves here On May 14, the related ecosystem announced cooperation with @byreal_io On May 19, there will be trading competitions and incentives But incentives need to be viewed with restraint They can bring short-term trading volume, But that doesn’t mean they can bring long-term retention. >The real thing to watch is: After the event ends, Whether users, liquidity, and trading frequency remain. >The Tempo line is also interesting USD1 was natively launched on @tempo, becoming the first TIP-20 stablecoin with a supply exceeding 4.5 billion If it can extend from exchange margin to on-chain ecosystems and payment infrastructure, Then it’s not just another new stablecoin But it’s starting to test whether it can become a reusable settlement asset. I’m not blindly bullish on this line. It’s just that the stablecoin sector is too competitive now. >Issuance scale is not the endgame >Real usage is Whoever can enter the real trading path has the chance to be retained by the market. What $WLFI really needs to verify later is not short-term sentiment, But whether the usage scenarios of USD1 can continue to spread. Note: The USD1 related ecosystem is still developing, the content does not constitute any investment advice, DYOR #USD1 #WLFI #DeFi

After researching quantitative trading bots for a while, I fed it a large amount of technical indicators + current on-chain data, and through the AI agent, a trading strategy was summarized. 🚨 Latest BTC trading strategy: Buy on pullback plan (originally waiting for trigger, but now it has already dropped) 💡 Core logic: Patiently wait for confirmation of key support zones, do not blindly chase highs, place orders in batches after right-side signals are established. 📌 Trigger conditions (all must be met) Price touchpoint: Pull back to the 79,500 - 80,000 range. Candlestick pattern: 4H timeframe closes with a hammer candlestick with a long lower shadow or bullish engulfing, and absolutely must not break below the previous low of 79,188. Indicator resonance: 1H StochRSI successfully crosses above 20 from the oversold area. Derivatives data: Funding rate must not turn deeply negative (must stay above -0.02%, meaning shorts have not entered desperate shorting, market sentiment is relatively healthy). Fundamental catalyst: Warsh’s first speech concluded, market direction reaction is clear. ⚙️ Execution parameters (Post Only limit orders) 🎯 Enter in batches: (entry positions must meet all above requirements) 79,200 (light position 60%) 78,800 (add position 40%) 🛑 Hard stop loss: 78,200 (below previous low 78,613 + ATR buffer, to avoid integer liquidity hunting). 💰 Take profit targets (TP) TP1: 81,500 (close 50%, remaining position breakeven stop) TP2: 82,000 (close 30%, testing 200-day moving average resistance) TP3: 82,500 (keep 20% tail position, to play the right-side space after breakout) Currently developing a Skill linked to the exchange, allowing one-click order placement, local recording of order P&L, which can be summarized and reviewed later, and gradually refine entry indicators. (Given the current situation, we will observe its subsequent direction, do not directly open market orders) PS: This article is mainly for sharing technical information and does not constitute investment advice. #大漠茶馆 #openclaw #AI #quantitative trading

I won't be able to mutually follow you Blue V accounts anymore, and I am very sorry🤣 In the past days, being side by side with all the Blue V teachers in the same following list was an extremely precious, dazzling, and surreal memory in my account's journey. Once upon a time, every time I opened my homepage and saw those rows of follows, I would vaguely feel that I was a little closer to the center of the world. Every like, every retweet, every subtle interaction from you was like a beam of light in the deep night, illuminating the path forward for my ordinary account. However, there is no feast that never ends, and the internet has no eternal mutual follows. Today, with a heavy and complicated heart, I have to say goodbye to this Blue V friendship. It's not that I don't cherish it, not that I don't miss it, and certainly not that I have forgotten the bits and pieces we once brushed past in the information flow. It's just that life must move forward, and the account must eventually follow its own path. Thank you for appearing in my following list, thank you for letting my homepage briefly have the illusion of "I seem to have some status." I will always remember those days. May all Blue V continue to shine and keep glowing and thriving in your respective fields. As for me, I will quietly exit with this memory. Mountains and rivers will meet again, the algorithm will see us again. Goodbye, my honorable Blue V friends. This time, just Gold V mutual follow?

Hong Kong IPOs have indeed heated up recently But one reality must be noted: ➢ Stocks with good gains are often hard to get Stocks that are easy to get may not have good gains. Many Hong Kong IPOs this year showed strong first-day performance, such as Jitai Technology, MiniMax, and Biren Technology, which carry AI / hard tech labels, all demonstrating strong profit potential. The problem is, the winning rate is also suppressed very low Popular stocks can be oversubscribed by thousands of times, and retail investors applying for just one lot often end up only running alongside. > Around May 15, Top Control CNC is worth paying close attention to. > IPO subscription from May 12-15, expected to list on May 20, one lot about HKD 2666 Its labels are strong: the first commercial aerospace stock, five-axis CNC machine tools, high-end manufacturing. Such stocks tend to get hot but also get crowded easily The biggest fear in Hong Kong IPOs is not that no one competes, but that everyone competes. Because if the hype is already maxed out during margin financing and the dark pool phase, the first day may turn into a cash-out game. ➤ So now, when participating in IPOs, you can’t just look at whether it’s popular You need to consider the winning rate, margin financing, valuation, dark pool, and first-day support. Being able to apply doesn’t mean applying recklessly. The core of Hong Kong IPO investing is not rushing in, but judging whether the profit has already been eaten up by others in advance. Note: The above content is for personal analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice, DROY #HongKongIPOs

Welcome everyone to Misa's engagement party on 5.22 🤣 Since using #OnchainOS scanning chains, signing, capturing signals, taking the optimal path it does it all for me. I date, it guards my positions, I get married, it earns my dowry. I spend, it pays the bill for me. With Onchain OS it's not just holding hands, it's holding the optimal path of destiny. Onchain OS ready to use out of the box making complex decisions simple 💚

In the past couple of days, the market has already started associating Trump's Beijing trip with the WLFI narrative. This association is not surprising. ➤ But if we directly write the co-appearance as a landing now, I think it's still too early. What really deserves attention in this matter is not a photo, but the fact that three lines have been put into the same discussion framework by the market for the first time: geopolitics, AI infrastructure, stablecoins --- Let's first clarify the boundaries. Public information shows that Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13, accompanied by Elon Musk, Nvidia's Jensen Huang, and Eric Trump. But there are also public statements mentioning that Eric Trump is not conducting business on this trip. So at this stage, this matter is better understood as a signal worth observing rather than a verified advancement. --- Why is the market still sensitive to this? Because for projects like WLFI, the market pricing often looks beyond the current product itself. A larger part is actually pricing the resources, scenarios, and distribution capabilities it may connect to in the future. The reason this Beijing trip sparked discussion is essentially because it simultaneously touches on three imaginative spaces: political attention, tech capital, and on-chain finance. --- But what I care more about is not the short-term hype itself, but a more practical question: For stablecoin assets like USD1, is there a chance in the future to move from being a "narrative target" to a "payment tool" or "settlement tool"? These are two completely different stages. The former relies on sentiment and attention, the latter relies on access, usage, and continuous circulation. --- So what really deserves tracking later is not the volume of discussion, but structural actions. I will focus on three things: 1. Whether there is clearer institutional cooperation or channel advancement 2. Whether real payment/settlement scenarios appear 3. Whether there are infrastructure actions around compliance, custody, and clearing/settlement If these do not appear, then this wave looks more like sentiment reinforcement rather than fundamental changes. --- I have always thought that the most valuable moment for stablecoins is not when the discussion is hottest, but when it starts entering real-world capital flows. > Whether it can be accessed, > whether it can be used, > whether it can be continuously settled, these three things are more important than any co-appearance. --- ➢ My phased judgment is: This Beijing trip is worth attention but more suitable for tracking, not for premature conclusions. At least it shows that the three lines of politics, technology, and on-chain finance are appearing more and more frequently in the same picture. But what really determines the ceiling is not who appears in the photo, but who can turn attention into products, scenarios, and usage. Note: The above content is only a personal information breakdown and not any investment advice, DROY!

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Early this morning, several old groups were all showing off their orders for Ledong Robot () Last night, the dark pool saw a surge of over 200 points, with screenshots of a single lot floating profit of more than 10,000 HKD flying everywhere Seeing such an excited atmosphere in the group, I guess many people were envious Everyone only focused on those lucky chosen ones feasting But no one calculated how many people in that 512.7 billion HKD margin (financing) army Not only didn’t get a single lot, but also had to endure several days of high financing interest Retail investors are most easily brainwashed by headlines about oversubscription of 6700 times Thinking this is an absolute no-brainer buy signal If you calm down and do the math, you’ll understand →→→ 6700 times means the single lot winning rate was brutally compressed to a pitiful 0.8% Those big players using tens of millions in capital to hit the top, after deducting capital costs, at best barely make a little profit from one lot For those who got the lot, of course they’re happy, but for most retail investors, this is a meat grinder with outrageously low capital utilization Looking at the current trend in Hong Kong stocks, the only thing giving ordinary people a chance is actually the mandatory clawback mechanism Usually, the public market share might be just 10%, but because Ledong was oversubscribed over 100 times Retail investors’ share was forcibly clawed back to 35% Every time before I enter, I stare hard at this clawback threshold and calculate for a long time ➢ If this lifeline can’t be triggered, small funds going in are purely paying brokerage fees as cannon fodder, with no chance to even sit at the table →→→ Now about the base position game Many people subscribe to IPOs without even checking who the sponsors in the prospectus are, blindly following others (luck is indeed part of strength, haha) Do you really think Ledong’s stability this time is all thanks to the AI concept? Actually, it’s Haitong International, Guotai Junan and other big banks using real money as the anchor If a new stock’s cornerstone investors are all unknown small funds No matter how much hype the concept gets, the probability of opening below issue price is very high The pricing power days before listing is never about faith, it’s all about the muscle of these sponsors’ factions (these small details must be taken seriously) →→→ As for yesterday afternoon’s dark pool trading, that was the most truthful reveal I’m used to opening Futu and Phillip’s dark pool windows on my computer simultaneously to watch Once the dark pool trend weakens or discounts, it means big money is rushing to exit, and the first second of the next day’s open is all about clearing positions and stopping losses, no nonsense Last night Ledong surged to 229% on Futu, the buy-side premium was a bit ridiculous, that’s the only reason I dared to hold my base position calmly today Since subscribing to Xiaomi’s IPO in 2019 and surviving till now I’ve stepped into the deep pit of biotech stock break-issues And also enjoyed several waves of AI dividends In this environment of severe liquidity differentiation, I don’t believe in luck, only in some of my reference standards: no strong narrative, no play if oversubscription is under 500 times, no overnight if dark pool doesn’t have a 50% safety cushion Although I got this piece of meat today, the money in the market is endless, but the principal can definitely be lost Don’t use your hard-earned money to fill those unpopular pits no one wants, understand the underlying rules before entering, it’s much more useful than any illusory screenshot of orders (Personal real trading logic breakdown, absolutely not investment or account opening advice. DYOR.) #HongKongIPO