Q4 begins! Outlook for October
Q4 is often crypto's "go!" quarter, with fresh liquidity, rate cut odds & L2 throughput create an exciting setup.
➤ Current market state
- BTC: $114.5k
- ETH: $4.14k
- total market cap: $4t
- stablecoins: $299b
➤ Liquidity pulse
stablecoins have grown for about 24 consecutive months, now reaching $299b.
w/ the net stablecoin inflows in q3 surged 324% compared to q4, indicating a return of dry powder.
➤ ETF flows
volatile but active.
- september 29 saw a +$518m net day across US spot $BTC ETFs
- september 30 had mixed results (e.g., IBIT –$46.6M).
these flows are important for year end rebalancing.
➤ Macro
the next FOMC meetings are october 28–29 and december 9–10.
futures indicate a 99% chance of another 25bp cut in october w/ easier policy is a tailwind for risk and onchain activity.
➤ L2 throughput & usage
L2 secured value is approximately $44.9b, @base is handling around 1.01m daily active users and approximately 11.85m transactions per day.
@arbitrum recently achieved about $901m in DEX volume within 24 hours. Usage goes beyond narrative; it’s tangible.
➤ DeFi structure
tvl is around $160b, mainly concentrated in platforms like @aave and @lido w/ concentration presents risks.
it also indicates that capital is aligning with pmf in a few efficient channels.
➤ RWA moves
tracked rwa tvl exceeds $15b, while broader metrics estimate tokenized assets at over $31B.
treasury style yields continue to compound on-chain; expect more "T-bill + perps" combinations this quarter.
➤ Seasonality
since 2015, $BTC average q4 return is +58%, although this is not a guarantee, but it provides valuable context.
when combined with ETF flows and potential rate cuts, it creates asymmetric opportunities.
➤ Q4 low risk plays
- liquidity beta (BTC/ETH) for seasonality and flow
- quality perpetual dexs and l2 hubs where fees per transaction scale effectively
- rwa yield channels and stablecoin on/off-ramps
- restaking/avs systems that secure actual workloads, not just reward points
My tools
/ @coinglass_com
/ @DefiLlama
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