It's hard to keep up with @yieldbasis, because everything about it is so complicated. But this presents an opportunity.
With YB, my edge is simply that I pay attention.
And from what I can tell, $YB is currently undervalued. Here's a brief overview.
- Devs have confirmed that Yieldbasis generated ~$500K in profit for YB stakers in October. This will be paid when fee switch is turned on
- For comparison, during the same period Curve generated ~$1M in profit, which is of course paid to staked CRV
- Yieldbasis TVL has to be migrated to new contracts, which should be deployed very shortly
- But once that happens, the next two items on the roadmap are: 1) fee switch, and 2) increase loan from Curve so that Yieldbasis TVL cap can be raised from $150M -> $500M
- The preparatory steps for these two roadmap items have already been undertaken, and only blocker is the TVL migration
- Once TVL goes up 3x, presumably profit will also increase 3x. So maybe $1.5M per month. Again, for context Yieldbasis will be making more profit than Curve
- At $0.5, YB has a market cap of about $50M. But only a fraction of that is currently staked and eligible for rewards once fee switch is flipped
- YB emissions are considerable, but not too bad given the profit being generated. Team and investor unlocks begin April 1st. (But even then, it's likely @newmichwill picked investors and team members inclined to stake.)
- Finally, I'm bullish BTC and crypto for Q4 and Q1. I think volatility will increase, meaning more revenue for Yieldbasis
Likely reasons why YB is undervalued
- Confusion and uncertainty about the core protocol and how it generates revenue
- Confusion about revenue amount, esp because fee switch isn't active yet
- Uncertainty about migration to new contracts
- Uncertainty about securing the increased loan from Curve
- Ignorance about token emissions, esp the choice of ybBTC to stake or not stake, which affects protocol profit and YB emissions
- Lingering bad sentiment for altcoins from the 10/10 crash
Final thoughts
If you know enough about Yieldbasis to not be worried about the things above, then you have an edge. Again, many elements of Yieldbasis are very complicated, which makes people reluctant to hold YB.
I think YB is almost as important and valuable as CRV for the Curve ecosystem, but the price does not reflect that.
As more people realize that CRV and YB are symbiotic, and as it becomes clear that expansion of Yieldbasis is the core driver for the growth of Curve - I think YB price will increase.
In the very short term, fee switch and TVL cap increase are immediate and powerful catalysts.
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