Q4 is set to be the most bullish part of this cycle
And it’s also BUYBACK SEASON again, but not every team is actually reducing float.
Some just farm engagement
Here’s how to separate real from fake (+ list of confirmed buybacks) 🧵👇
➤ Understand the type of buyback:
1️⃣ Buyback & Burn: Tokens are destroyed & float goes down for good.
2️⃣ Buyback to Treasury: Tokens move to team wallets, reducing float but can be re-sold later.
3️⃣ Buyback & Stake: Tokens are staked not destroyed
➤ Next in your list should be the funding source.
Is it sustainable?
1️⃣ Revenue/Fees: Tied to usage. These buybacks can continue indefinitely without depleting reserves or diluting shareholders
Good example, $APEX
Announcing the $APEX Token Buyback Program
To reinforce our long-term commitment to the ApeX Protocol ecosystem and ensure our community directly benefits from the value created, we are excited to introduce the APEX Token Buyback Program. We will be kicking off this initiative with a one-time commitment of $12,000,000 using past revenue.
2️⃣ Treasury/War Chest: Buybacks are funded from a treasury using existing capital reserves, not ongoing revenue.
Eg $AAVE's $1M/week buybacks in early 2025
3️⃣ New token issuance or OTC raise: This offsets any benefit. New supply entering the ecosystem dilutes existing holders.
Revenue-backed buybacks are market-neutral & sustainable. They align with protocol health.
Treasury-funded ones offer temporary support, but have limited lifespan.
Dilution-funded models risk undermining trust and negating supply benefits.
Long-term, revenue-backed wins.
➤ Understand the mechanics of the buybacks
1️⃣ Size: Compare the buyback's value to supply. It's meaningful if it's >1% of supply or outsizes volume
Eg $HYPE $1.26B buyback in August was 8.7% supply
2️⃣ Cadence: Is it a one-off event or weekly/monthly/per block?
Programmatic buybacks are better long-term.
3️⃣ Execution: TWAP or an on-chain program are best for minimizing market impact.
Large market orders or secretive OTC buys can lack transparency.
Look for a public schedule and verifiable addresses to track the funds.
➤ A buyback should support the token’s existing utility, not fight it.
- Does it feed into a fee-share/staking mechanism? If the buyback is distributed to stakers, it creates a direct holder benefit and reduces float.
- Is the buyback size dwarfed by huge unlocks/emissions? $1M buyback means nothing if $10M worth of tokens are being unlocked.
- Always check the vesting schedule. Upcoming cliffs often outweigh the short-term benefit of any buyback.
➤ Red Flags
Avoid tokens with these warning signs.
- "We will consider buybacks" with no amounts or schedule
- Funding the buyback via new token sales
- Buybacks during periods of big emissions or unlocks
- No on-chain addresses, no receipts, and no public cadence.
➤ Which projects should you keep on your radar for buybacks?
1️⃣ Confirmed:
@Ronin_Network: $4.6M Treasury buyback from Sep 29 to convert all ETH and USDC treasury reserves into $RON over 1 month.
@PancakeSwap | $CAKE: Ongoing Buyback & Burn funded by a share of protocol fees.
@synthetix_io | $SNX: Buyback & burn via Andromeda (SIP-345). 40% of Perps V3 fees on Base used to buy and burn $SNX. Ongoing since late 2023.
@HyperliquidX | $HYPE: Fee-driven buyback & burn, where 97% of trading fees are used to buy and burn $HYPE.
@worldlibertyfi | $WLFI: Recently executed huge Buyback-and-Burn funded by DeFi fees & liquidity earnings.
@GMX_IO | $GMX: 30% of V1 & 27% of V2 fees used to buy $GMX, distributed to stakers. Approved in 2024.
@dYdX| $DYDX: 25% of protocol fees used for monthly DYDX purchases
@Fetch_ai | $FET: CEO Humayun Sheikh announced $50M FET buyback in June funded by Fetch Foundation with market maker support.
2️⃣Unconfirmed:
@Aster_DEX | $ASTER: Multiple outlets report possible fee-funded buybacks. No on-chain proof, governance vote, or official docs yet.
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